March 17, 2020

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic

Jason S Warner, writing on Medium:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

Jason further explains the multiplication rate of cases with this virus over 30 days and the differences in if people are practicing social distancing and if they’re not. Long story short, that rate is 2 to the tenth power without social distancing and 2 to the fourth power with social distancing. There’s many other issues which should be considered as well, so do give the article a read.